tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post3614598842952418767..comments2024-01-09T04:20:39.453-05:00Comments on Around the Keg: The things I fearNoahhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14345059376742159966noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-29316925006890412732008-10-09T12:45:00.000-05:002008-10-09T12:45:00.000-05:00George-I think it is possible that racists WILL st...George-<BR/><BR/>I think it is possible that racists WILL still vote for Obama kind of like they will root for a black athlete to succeed. Of course if Obama is seen as a bad President, the voter will go back to calling him the N-word and explain it away with race.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12669616484991718478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-8391807847171460252008-10-09T12:30:00.000-05:002008-10-09T12:30:00.000-05:00I don't know--when the Republicans actually steal ...I don't know--when the Republicans actually steal elections, the Dems roll over. So if the Republicans just <EM>think</EM> an election is stolen, all hell will break loose? Tell me we haven't gone that far into the world of wackydom.<BR/><BR/>It's sort of encouraging, in a twisted way, that there are anecdotes like <A HREF="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Race_and_the_economy.html?showall" REL="nofollow">this one</A> going around: it seems even some folks who are more than willing to call Obama the N-word might even vote for him. If he's pulling some of the racist vote, there is hope for America.Georgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09229058328541626829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-43597157826975002922008-10-09T08:16:00.000-05:002008-10-09T08:16:00.000-05:00The question is, are there really that many bigots...The question is, are there really that many bigots out there who still would consider a Democratic Presidential candidate? I say the Democrats lost most of those folks long ago. I know there are racist Democrats, but I am betting most of them have been voting for R's in presidential elections.<BR/><BR/>The question is, does the Bradley Effect exist? This is not a measure of people voting against a person based on race, but a measure of the people lying to pollster about it. If you believe it exists, then there are somewhere around 6 percent of Obama “supporters” lying to pollsters. If this is true, then there are six states that are currently in favor of Obama by less than 6 percent, who will flip on Election Day. According to the current <A HREF="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10" REL="nofollow">Real Clear Poltitics map</A>, that would mean McCain wins by 274 to 264 electoral votes. That said, Obama's lead may grow beyond 6 percent in states like Colorado by Election Day.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/persistent-myth-of-bradley-effect.html" REL="nofollow">Nate Silver at FiveThrityEight.com</A> has an interesting article dispelling the myth of the Bradley Effect.<BR/><BR/>As far as the reaction to an Obama loss, I think that will depend on whether or not people feel that McCain won fairly or not. If it is seen as another “stolen election,” then people could voice their anger inappropriately. If stupid attacks like the Ayers acquaintance and especially Reverend Wright garbage have an impact, I could see people seeing it as an somewhat stolen victory.<BR/><BR/>The one thing I would say is that I do believe that when Palin says that “he is not like us” she is allowing people to fill in the blanks to what she means. I am not so Polly-Ann-ish to believe that people aren’t willing to win an election based on race. I never thought in a million years I would hear a Clinton talk about being the favorite candidate of white voters, but we heard it in the primaries.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12669616484991718478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-44122793580829696022008-10-09T08:13:00.000-05:002008-10-09T08:13:00.000-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12669616484991718478noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-88699729133329038122008-10-09T08:09:00.000-05:002008-10-09T08:09:00.000-05:00Based on some of the shit we're hearing the crowds...Based on some of the shit we're hearing the crowds say at these Palin/McCain rallies, that third scenario isn't too far outside the realm of possibility. Sad but true.Rickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05773465359487671887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-75511784066008382902008-10-09T07:37:00.000-05:002008-10-09T07:37:00.000-05:00It will be there by the end of the day!It will be there by the end of the day!Soporhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15647578353963214035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-74165114812369588102008-10-08T21:57:00.000-05:002008-10-08T21:57:00.000-05:00I want to see a Facebook "Piece of Flair" that say...I want to see a Facebook "Piece of Flair" that says, simply, "Americanity."Noahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14345059376742159966noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-74134902786922544132008-10-08T21:07:00.000-05:002008-10-08T21:07:00.000-05:00"Option 4 is by far, IMO, the more likely of the t..."Option <B>4</B> is by far, IMO, the more likely of the <B>three</B>."<BR/><BR/>Wow, how in the hell did this make it through my logic processors? I think I need a drink...Soporhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15647578353963214035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-49702216261372540862008-10-08T21:04:00.000-05:002008-10-08T21:04:00.000-05:00And "Americanity" should be in the pledge of alleg...And "Americanity" should be in the pledge of allegiance, the presidential oath of office, and the boy scout pledge. EPIC word creation...B Machttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01874975455332269325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-2617774640997570352008-10-08T21:02:00.000-05:002008-10-08T21:02:00.000-05:00Oh, absolutely, option 4) is the best. And it is ...Oh, absolutely, option 4) is the best. And it is probably the most likely. I should have specified; numbers 1-3 were the outcomes that have me concerned.B Machttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01874975455332269325noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-41519731446765387972008-10-08T20:30:00.000-05:002008-10-08T20:30:00.000-05:00Pete and I are very, physically speaking, close to...Pete and I are very, physically speaking, close to each other. Were both from rural communities chock-FULL of bigotry!<BR/><BR/>But I'm with him on this one too. I'll be honest and say these same fears have flickered in the back of my mind... but honestly? I'm not too worried about it! I suppose I still have not had all my faith in humanity/Americanity (OOOH I just made up a new word!) destroyed yet, and I would like to think that's for good reason!<BR/><BR/>And lastly, I don't think we need to fuel these fears. Option 4 is by far, IMO, the more likely of the three. I think America can get over this BS, it just might take until January 20th for the nation to realize it's done, lets make the best of what we get!<BR/><BR/>Oh, and you know what concerns the "rednecks" around me more than the fact that Obama is black? His views on gun control! It doesn't seem they care too much what color the Pres is, more that he lets them keep their guns!Soporhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15647578353963214035noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-68576042461797514572008-10-08T19:07:00.000-05:002008-10-08T19:07:00.000-05:00Pete raises a good point. I am just not all that ...Pete raises a good point. I am just not all that worried at this point, but maybe I am being naive.<BR/><BR/>The attacks on him don't appear to be racially motivated. The "not one of us" seems to be playing on the elitist liberal. I am sure that there are racist nujobs out there, but they seem to be rare.steveshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08862590608695420004noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-88509818307812989102008-10-08T17:51:00.000-05:002008-10-08T17:51:00.000-05:00Where is option 4) Obama wins by a decent margin, ...Where is option 4) Obama wins by a decent margin, humanity shows we're adults, and life goes on while we try and get out of this mess that seems to be happening lately?<BR/><BR/>Maybe I'm overly optimistic, blind to the obvious, or just sheltered in my mid-Michigan oasis. But I'd like to think that we've come far enough that none of those scenarios are likely. Of all the Obama bashing I've heard, actually none of it has been racially charged. And I know quite a few bigots, unfortunately.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14594994.post-89514425120097583482008-10-08T16:02:00.000-05:002008-10-08T16:02:00.000-05:00You sounds like my parents, alive during the racia...You sounds like my parents, alive during the racially-tense era of the 60s.<BR/><BR/>For my part? I always worry something will happen to him (Obama), but for that matter, every President has to worry about that, and I don't think Obama has to worry any more. Or less.Noahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14345059376742159966noreply@blogger.com