Election Day Pundit Bullshit

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Allow me to firmly place the Hat of Self-Importance upon my brow and project a few ideas on election day wit and wisdom as it progresses along.

By way of qualifications and resume', given my particular line of work, I am great at sounding like I know what I am talking about when I truly don't. So take this with a grain of salt. And by grain, I mean one of those Morton's cardboard containers with the little metal flippy top.

Dems will take 22 seats, up 7 from the 15 they need to take control of the House. Comfortable margin indeed. Split power in the Senate? No. Dems miss it by 1. Racism wins the day in Tennessee.

In Michigan's races, for the federal level, all incumbents win. The only close-call is the Walberg seat. Schwarz made the cutoff date to register as a write-in. This sends his base into a tizzy, and reduces the total votes Walberg gets. It could put Renier in striking distance. Not holding my breath, but there is an outside chance.

BUT: it's raining in Michigan. More exactly, it's raining in the Democratic strongholds of Lansing and Detroit. Dems stay home, because that's what they do when it rains (no kidding). Where is it sunny today in Michigan? Grand Rapids. Of course.

Given that, Granholm, the Democratic Governor, wins reelection by a narrow margin; maybe the same margin she won by 4 years ago against challenger Dick Posthumus, which was about 4 points. When you win by a margin that small, there is plainly no "mandate" set by the voters. I'm talking to you, W.

Attorney General Cox and Sec'y of State Land retain their posts without much of a problem. Land has done an amazing job with Michigan's antiquated voting systems. Also, she has reduced the cliche'ed lengthy visits to the Secretary of State offices from a total and wild tragedy to only a minor inconvenience; from two broken legs to a couple of badly-placed mosquito bites. She's done this by offering as many services as possible, including license renewals of all sorts, online.

General Cox's messaging around deadbeat dads and other issues plays very very well, even though that's not really what an AG is for. But since nobody knows what the Hell an AG is for, he's doing a fine job by all accounts, and he really has. Lots of revenue into the state and has streamlined the department quite well. Plus, lotsa deadbeat dads are paying their due, which is fine by me.

Control of the House and Senate on the state level remain in Republican control. All of the movement and grumpiness in Washington does not at all translate to the local level where people see their Reps doing a fine job of scaling-back spending and cutting taxes but providing smart services. For all the complaining and bashing, the Guv and State Legislature have done a decent job of passing policy compromises that generally make sense, except for the stuff about a month before they took a break for the elections. But everyone has to campaign on something. The House and Senate Dems are able to narrow the margin a bit more, making it a little harder to be completely blown-off.

Proposal 1 fails. It is weird and complicated to some voters, and on ballot initiatives, the rule of thumb is when in doubt, vote no.

Proposal 2 fails by the slimmest of margins. There are enough people who find value in affirmative action programs and enough people confused enough by it (remember, confusion = no) to have the "no" prevail by a slim margin.

Proposal 3 fails. I think it's dumb. The legislature and the Guv already said "yes" by passing and signing the ability to hunt Mourning Doves. But it will fail. There are enough folks that think it's silly to hunt 2.5 ounces-worth of meat.

Proposal 4 passes. Keep the Government's hands off my damn property.

Proposal 5...passes. For all the trouble and chaos it will create in upcoming budgets, with having to plug a $500 billion gap (on top of the $1.9 billion gap created by the elimination of the Single Business Tax) in the state budget to cover it, enough people will want to bolster and constitutionally protect education funding to pass it.

This is all bullshit. I am guessing and am flinging averages between polls I have read to come up with my thoughts. I have also added about every rumor I agree with into these thoughts. We'll see after 8:00.


Mr Furious 3:26 PM  

I pretty much concur, top to bottom.

Mike 3:58 PM  

You guys have a candidate for governer named Dick Posthumus?

Please tell me this is some sort of Wolverine inside humor.

Smitty 4:14 PM  

We had a candidate named Dick Posthumus. Dick Death. The jokes were abundant. He lost.

The guv's opponent this year is Dick (again...) DeVos.

Something about Republicans in Michigan at the top of the ticket being named Dick.

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