The Perfect Storm

What creates a perfect storm for an election? In 1994, the Republicans had it by taking control of Congress for the first time in 40 years. The capitalized on unpopular social issues (gays in the military, proposed nationalized health care) and entrenched incumbents. In 2006, the Democrats thought they had it by taking control of the Congress (House and Senate), and stunningly taking back the Michigan House of Representatives. But it turned out that the Dems were wrong because 2006 was precursor to 2008, which was the perfect tsunami!

What makes the perfect storm in politics that leads to a landslide for one party or the other? My thoughts:

The Economy. “It’s the economy, stupid.” Thanks, James Carville, for pointing that out to us. What held true in 1992 still holds true. But this time, it was not just the economy. That has been depressed for a while, while trying to make a rebound. Jobs losses are common and people are leaving the state. Leaders, whether governmental or business, are doing all they can to bring jobs back. But no one saw the financial market mess coming. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsing was big, but when real people see that that they can’t get bank loans or refinance mortgages then it really comes home to roost.

The Bailout. People really can’t believe that the American public gave so much money to Wall Street. Was it the right thing to do? Probably. But when you default on your loan, no one bails you out. When you make bad decisions, no one bails you out. Corporate America got bailed out, though, and people are sick of it. This reflected on President Bush and his administration, though, and not on the candidates nor on the Congress. People just seem to believe that we wouldn’t be there in the first place if not for President Bush.

The War. Going on so many years, people are sick of tremendous spending on the war. They want to bring the troops home victorious, but they see the incredible expense of the American people for a never-ending and potentially losing effort. Why not spend those dollars here at home? Or close the federal deficit and debt? See above, The Economy.

Change. People want change. They need it. People want to know that the country has new ideas to move forward. That is what brought us John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Whether you believe in the new ideas of the youth (Kennedy), or supply-side economics with the trickle-down effects (Reagan), or a plan to do something rather than staying the course (Clinton), you want change. New ideas, not the status quo.

None of these on their own creates a “perfect storm” but these all taken together created the perfect storm this year. Oh, and the addition of race to the mix. Barack Obama drew out African-Americans in droves. Young, old, men, women. Some thought that race would also be a factor in discouraging people from voting for Obama, and maybe it was. But I think the new voters greatly outweighed those that wouldn’t vote for him because he is African-American.

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Post-election ramblings of a conservative leaning/pragmatic/libertarian

It is no secret that I have some concerns about Obama in several areas. I am not going to blog about those. I appreciate the history and want to let his die-hard supporters enjoy their moment. I found this post by Ilya Somin on Volokh, which has become one of my favorite blogs (besides ATK) because they take a reasoned approach to the issues and don't seem beholden to any party (for the most part). It is called, Three Positive Aspects of Obama's Victory and I think they bear consideration by Independents and Conservatives.

One:

First and foremost, Obama's victory is an extraordinary milestone in the history of American race relations...As recently as 45 years ago, most American blacks did not even have the right to vote, much less any hope of being elected to the highest office in the land. Just a few decades before that, in the early 1900s, many southern blacks could not even freely change jobs, because of constraints imposed by state peonage laws.


Two:

Second, it is clear that Obama's win will improve the image of the United States throughout much of the world. I do not believe that pleasing foreign public opinion should be the be all and end all of American foreign policy. Sometimes, we can and should take unpopular actions. But it would be wrong to assume, as some conservatives have during the Bush Administration, that the good will of foreign publics is irrelevant.


Three:

Obama is an incredibly talented and charismatic politician. His meteoric rise from being a little-known state senator just four years ago is the most rapid ascent from obscurity to the White House in at least a century, if not longer. Conservatives and libertarians underestimate his competence and political skills at their peril.

The author ends with this point:

However, it is fair to say that Obama is unlikely to commit serious mistakes merely because of incompetence or stupidity. If he adopts flawed policies, it will be because of his ideology or because of perverse political incentives that enable him and his party to reap short-term political gains from policies that cause long-run harm.

I would be lying to say I am not a little bit frightened by one party controlling 2 of the 3 braches of government, but I am still cautiously optimistic. For now, congratulations to President Obama and his supporters on a well earned victory.

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Bob's Best: My five favorite images from this election.

As published in the New York Times, this image was taken at the Democratic National Convention:

Another NY Times photo taken during the primaries:

The picture below makes me wonder what this man might have been thinking or feeling to be brought to tears and inspiration by Obama. Is it pride in country? Was he denied a job because of his color? Is he another person holding out hope that the future will be better for his children?

A rain-soaked rally:

My little Obamamaniac. She can read two words: her name and "Obama."

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Yes He Did.

We were there.

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Go.

Get the hell off this blog and go vote. Go. Now. Vote. Then talk about it in the comments section.

But for now? Go vote.

And for any loyal ATK readers who need an extra push, here's a little election day sexy for you.

Better?

Good. Still here? Go. Vote.

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Wicked Witch of Wayne County?

Have you guys caught wind of Shirley Nagel, dubbed by one blogger as the "Wicked Witch of Wayne County"? I'll bet you have, but since I just heard about it, I'll assume there must be other who have not heard.

One Shirley Nagel, of Grosse Point Farms, refused to give candy to children on Halloween if their parents were supporters of Obama! What kind of a crock of shit is that?! She apparently even had a sign out front that read "No handouts for Obama supporters, liars, tricksters or kids of supporters." OMFG?!?! It's one thing for a couple of adults to hash out their political views in some less than savory ways... BUT LEAVE THE KIDS OUT OF IT!



One commenter on Buzzfeed said "And that's how many children learned to hate republicans. Not the brightest campaign idea."

Freep.com article

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Will the real Obama please stand up

Over at the National Journal Magazine, Stuart Taylor Jr. has a great article, Which Obama Would America Get?  I think he takes a pretty fair look at Obama and asks some really good questions.  Obama is clearly one of the most gifted and talented politicians in recent memory.  Despite his age and relative inexperience, he has had a vibrant and interesting political career.  For someone to say that they "just don't know him" is silly, but I think it is fair to ask what kind of leader he will be.

"When John McCain and many other Republicans ask, "Who is the real Barack Obama?" there is an implication that maybe he is somehow sinister or extremist.

I don't believe that. But I do think that there are two very different Obamas. Both are extraordinarily intelligent, serene under pressure, and driven by an admirable social conscience -- albeit as willing to deploy deception as the next politician. But while the first Obama would be a well-meaning failure, the second could become a great president."

I hope we get the second.

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