The Perfect Storm

What creates a perfect storm for an election? In 1994, the Republicans had it by taking control of Congress for the first time in 40 years. The capitalized on unpopular social issues (gays in the military, proposed nationalized health care) and entrenched incumbents. In 2006, the Democrats thought they had it by taking control of the Congress (House and Senate), and stunningly taking back the Michigan House of Representatives. But it turned out that the Dems were wrong because 2006 was precursor to 2008, which was the perfect tsunami!

What makes the perfect storm in politics that leads to a landslide for one party or the other? My thoughts:

The Economy. “It’s the economy, stupid.” Thanks, James Carville, for pointing that out to us. What held true in 1992 still holds true. But this time, it was not just the economy. That has been depressed for a while, while trying to make a rebound. Jobs losses are common and people are leaving the state. Leaders, whether governmental or business, are doing all they can to bring jobs back. But no one saw the financial market mess coming. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac collapsing was big, but when real people see that that they can’t get bank loans or refinance mortgages then it really comes home to roost.

The Bailout. People really can’t believe that the American public gave so much money to Wall Street. Was it the right thing to do? Probably. But when you default on your loan, no one bails you out. When you make bad decisions, no one bails you out. Corporate America got bailed out, though, and people are sick of it. This reflected on President Bush and his administration, though, and not on the candidates nor on the Congress. People just seem to believe that we wouldn’t be there in the first place if not for President Bush.

The War. Going on so many years, people are sick of tremendous spending on the war. They want to bring the troops home victorious, but they see the incredible expense of the American people for a never-ending and potentially losing effort. Why not spend those dollars here at home? Or close the federal deficit and debt? See above, The Economy.

Change. People want change. They need it. People want to know that the country has new ideas to move forward. That is what brought us John F. Kennedy, and Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton. Whether you believe in the new ideas of the youth (Kennedy), or supply-side economics with the trickle-down effects (Reagan), or a plan to do something rather than staying the course (Clinton), you want change. New ideas, not the status quo.

None of these on their own creates a “perfect storm” but these all taken together created the perfect storm this year. Oh, and the addition of race to the mix. Barack Obama drew out African-Americans in droves. Young, old, men, women. Some thought that race would also be a factor in discouraging people from voting for Obama, and maybe it was. But I think the new voters greatly outweighed those that wouldn’t vote for him because he is African-American.