Some time ago, I predicted an Obama landslide if Newt Gingrich were to be picked as the Republican nominee. Is it just my bias playing games with me? Would Gingrich be more formidable than I predict?
Today is the S. Carolina primary. If FiveThirtyEight is correct, it seems Gingrich's embrace of the southern strategy is propelling him to victory there.
Am I crazy to hope for a Gingrich primary victory or am I playing with fire?
Very non-scientific prediction:
Iowa Caucus:
1) Ron Paul
2) Mitt Romney
3) Rick Santorum
4) Newters Gingrich
H/T to HuffoPo, the Maine Republican convention was quietly taken-over by Tea Party activists.
A majority of those present voted to abandon the "old" Republican platform and adopt the new 99-piece Tea Party platform.
A few gems:
- Return to the principles of Austrian Economics, and redirect the economy back to one of incentives to save and invest. [note: I suck at math and econ; thus, while I can't articulate why I think this is not the greatest idea in the world, I generally feel that way]
- Discard political correctness, make public the declaration of war (Jihad), made against the U.S. on 23 Feb 1998, and fight the war against the United States by radical Islam to win.
- Defeat Cap and Trade, investigate collusion between government and industry in the global-warming myth, and prosecute any illegal collusion.
Read the whole manifesto here.
The whole thing isn't exactly a bucket of crazy; some of what they say makes sense and is generally already supported by (I guess what I will now call) Reagan-era Republicans and even Democrats (like ditching the Fairness Doctrine). But there is some real crazy in it, like a sort of inordinate adherence to the 2nd amendment (how many times do you have to reinforce our right to bear arms, guys??) and the usual hype and conspiracy theory stuff about secret treaties with the U.N. And black helicopters. And microchips.
Republicans are once again in a tizzy regarding the rights of the accused.
This in Politico:
Congressional Republicans want to know whether the Pakistani-born American arrested in the Times Square car bombing plot was read his Miranda rights, with Sen. John McCain saying it would be a “serious mistake” if the suspect was reminded of his right to remain silent.
These guys act like one must be read their rights to actually obtain them. Seems to me that NOT reading him his rights might set up the accused for some sort of defense.
To the lawyers and soon-to-be lawyers at ATK: Am I missing something?
I always wondered what happens to staff members when a legislator switches party affiliation.
In one case, I now know. They all resign en masse.
That took guts.
Source: The Hill.
ATK regulars have debated the impact of the ultra conservative, "TEA Party" movement in several posts. In his post on October 12th, ATK contributor Steve suggested that the teabaggers might branch off into their own party. I discounted this suggestion at the time, because I surmised that the teabaggers don't need to do so when they really have complete control over the existing Republican Party. I thought that it was more likely that moderate Republicans would need their own party.
Judging by what is going on in one New York State Congressional race, Steve may have been right.
From what I have read, New York’s district #23 is usually a shoe-in for Republicans, but not so this year. It seems that New York Republicans aren’t conservative enough for the national party base, so Republicans like Fred Thomspon, Dick Armey and Sarah Palin have endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.
Up until today it looked like the foolish teabaggers, and the outsiders like Thompson, might be about to throw a solid Republican seat to the Democrats. Today, a Daily KOS poll (Yes, Kos.) showed that the race is a dead heat between Democrat Bill Owens at 33% and Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman at 32%. The Republican, Dede Scozzafava is way behind at 21%. Other polls by conservatives have shown similar numbers.
As a Democrat I see this situation as a win, no matter what the outcome on Tuesday. If the Democrat pulls it out, that is fine with me. Add one more to the Democratic majority in Congress. If the teabaggers claim victory and strengthen a third-party base, I am OK with that too.
If the Conservative Party becomes a more permanent, growing force in politics, I see the Republican Party even more fractured that it is. The ability of Republicans to deliver statewide or national elections will be endangered, perhaps setting up a long era of Democratic governance not seen since the beginning of the New Deal era.
What’s your take?
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