Legal Advice

Republicans are once again in a tizzy regarding the rights of the accused.

This in Politico:

Congressional Republicans want to know whether the Pakistani-born American arrested in the Times Square car bombing plot was read his Miranda rights, with Sen. John McCain saying it would be a “serious mistake” if the suspect was reminded of his right to remain silent.

These guys act like one must be read their rights to actually obtain them. Seems to me that NOT reading him his rights might set up the accused for some sort of defense.

To the lawyers and soon-to-be lawyers at ATK: Am I missing something?

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Undecided?

Somewhere around 7 or 8 percent of the U.S. voting population have not made a decision on who they will vote for president.

Who are these people and what is their holdup?

Maybe if you have not had a chance to turn on the TV this election cycle, you might be confused by one candidate’s economic plan versus his opponent's. Maybe if you haven’t even walked past a news stand, you might not know one tax plan from the other. But seriously, do these undecided voters have absolutely no opinion on the major issues that differentiate the candidates?

In case one of ATK’s 1.9 million readers is still on the fence, below you will find the simpletons guide to five major differences that can be defined in pretty much black and white terms. Each candidate for sure has more nuanced positions on these issues, but since some people are still pretty confused, I think we need to make it simple.

McCain – supports current tax policies, with an additional across the board cut.
Obama – wants to return to Clinton style tax policies, with an additional “middle class” cut.

McCain – supported the invasion of Iraq, supports a measured withdrawal of troops
Obama – opposed the invasion of Iraq, supports a measured withdrawal of troops, possibly a bit quicker.

McCain – opposed to abortion rights
Obama – in favor of abortion rights

McCain – generally supports reduced government regulation of business
Obama – generally in favor of greater regulation of business

Just in case you need extreme labels to make up your mind:

McCain – Conservative, fascist pig
Obama – Liberal, commie-pinko

I close with a funny quote from David Sedaris, written in the New Yorker on October 27th.

In regards to undecided voters:

To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat.

“Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”

To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.

I mean, really, what’s to be confused about?

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BOB makes great political ads.

I didn’t think Democrats had it in them to make funny, well-made political ads. A 527 group called Bring Ohio Back, (BOB) has some talented people working there. These ads might even cut through the clutter of negative ads over the next few weeks.

Economy



UPDATE:

The three other videos are now located here, here, and here.

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Don’t lay down the hay where the goats can get it.

Roger Simon at Politico writes a nice piece, which taught me a little history. It also shows that John Lewis shouldn't be ignored.

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Presidential Debate 3.0

Well, the final of three Presidential debates happened tonight. What's your take?



If you were to ask me, I'd say McCain would be doing better today in the polls if he had a long-term message similar to tonight's themes. He'd also have less of a climb had he performed similarly in the previous two debates.

Your take after the jump.

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RCP puts Obama at 50.1%, Florida leaning his way.

Real Clear Politics is showing Obama with an RCP average over 50% nationally for this first time since the general election began. More importantly, it is also now calling Florida as "leaning Obama", with Obama's Florida average at 50%.

Did I mention that North Dakota might be in play?

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McCain Campaign to Hit the "Reset Button"

According to my sources (okay... politico.com), McCain is planning a speech today in which he 're-launches' his campaign. Apparently this is an attempt to get away from the ugliness of the last couple of weeks (both in terms of rhetoric and his poll numbers).

So, the question for this Monday morning is: what should be his new slogan?

I vote for "Americanity Now"

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McCain does the right thing.

It seems the shouts of "traitor", "terrorist" and "off with his head" have become too much for McCain. As reported in the Washington Times, McCain is now responding to the nut jobs in his audience with pleas for calmness and respect.

I guess there maybe is a little of the old John McCain left in there somewhere. I hope he continues, because no matter who wins, running the country will be a lot harder with this kind of hatred embedded in our political process.

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The Right-Wing/Wall Street spin machine attacks the credit crisis.

The banking and housing crisis couldn't be the fault of deregulation - according to the Republicans, it's now the fault of minorities, the poor and the Community Reinvestment Act. (CRA)

John McCain, George Will and the fools of the Wall Street Journal are trying to rescue Reaganism from itself by a concerted effort to refocus the blame away from deregulation.

Slate's Daniel Gross debunks some of these lies in this column.

The CRA doesn't require loans to people who cannot afford them, it requires banks to make loans to people with good credit, who can afford them, but who happen to live in "bad" neighborhoods. In effect, it prohibits certain types of redlining. In fact, the CRA doesn't even apply to the majority of banks who created this mess.

I guess the facts cannot get in the way of a good blame game.

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Is McCain putting himself before country?

John Cole, at Balloon Juice has posted a very important discussion on the current state of the John McCain campaign. Please go there. Read the post entitled: "Beyond Ugly", watch the video, and discuss.

Has the McCain campaign become dangerous or are commentators just being alarmist?

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UPDATE:
Some blogs, including Greenwald and some in the foreign press are picking up on the alarming trend at McCain rallies, but still not enough from the MSM.

UPDATE 2:
A commentator at the Baltimore Sun has posted a column denouncing what is happening. Let's hope it ends up in the regular press.

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Obama crests 270 win number according to RCP.

For the first time this general election season, a ticket has crested the 270 vote minimum to win the electoral college. Today, Real Clear Politics took Virginia out of the toss-up category and awarded it to the Obama camp, having seen their poll averages raise above the margin of error.

See below.

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My Alma Mater doesn't have much of a ground game...

...but Barack Obama sure does.

For those of you loyal readers who don't work in politics and have never worked on a campaign, consider yourselves lucky. A political cycle is like the Hobbesian state of nature; solitary, poor, nasty, and brutish. The only difference is that instead of being short, it is long. Ungodly long.

The worst part of any campaign is field work. "Field" is shorthand for knocking door-to-door, making phone calls, registering and identifying voters, and generally persuading them to (a) show up on election day, and (b) vote for your guy/gal. It isn't glamorous, but it is vital.

Remember a couple of months ago when the McCain camp ran their series of "Paris Hilton" ads? The polls narrowed, and people asked "why isn't Obama fighting back? Shouldn't he be running tons of ads to counter this? What the hell is he DOING with his money?"

This is what he was doing with his money:


From all accounts, the Obama campaign has put more money into field operations than any campaign in history. But the more important part is that he organized EVERYWHERE, not just the traditional battlegrounds. Any idiot would have open offices in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. But Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri? The latest rumors report that Obama has 25 offices open in Indiana. McCain has... none. No offices. Until recently, the "Indiana for McCain" staff operated out of Michigan. He's reportedly moving staffers to the Hoosier state, but they only have a month to organize a state-wide voter identification and mobilization effort.

Now that we're 31 days out, it's becoming clear which states are really "in play". Had the Obama folks not organized in North Carolina, they would have to dump probably a million dollars into media buys. But because they organized there, they can just throw a few extra tens of thousands of dollars to bolster the GOTV ("Get Out The vote") efforts. It's a much cheaper alternative, which also doesn't preclude additional media buys.

Long story short, Obama is in a position to exploit states that traditional campaigns couldn't. And McCain had a much tougher time getting momentum in those same states because he's just starting up there.

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Other Possible Outcomes

In the last few days, I have posted several articles demonstrating the lead Obama is now enjoying, including some maps that show an overwhelming electoral victory.

The truth is, most of those maps depend on certain states falling into line with polls that are still within the margin of error, which only show a small Obama lead. Some of those states have shown a McCain lead for months, including Florida, where Obama has only recently seen a 2 to 3 point advantage.

It would not take much to change the current dynamics of this race.

Consider one state: New Hampshire. This state has recently been pretty solid ground for Democrats, but has the potential to swing the other way. The rebelliousness of New Hampshire’s electorate is well known, which has been known to unexpectedly kill off more than one leading primary candidate. It also tends to house have a moderate band of Republicans, who were once attracted to the McCain of old.

If Obama only holds onto the states where he is currently showing an above-the-margin-of-error-lead, and McCain wins New Hampshire, the race ends with a 269 to 269 electoral tie.

Worse, - in my eyes - if history repeats itself and McCain has a comeback in Colorado, traditionally a red state, McCain wins 274 to 264, even if Obama hangs on to New Hampshire.

Yesterday McCain pulled his human and financial resources out of Michigan. My bet is, he is going to pound Obama in New Hampshire, Colorado and the remaining swing states in another Hail Mary attempt to pull off a slim victory.

What’s your take?

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UPDATE: Mike Allen at Politico discusses the above scenerio and a few others that could lead to a McCain victory.

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McCain Giving Up on Michigan?

Jonathan Martin over at Politico is reporting that McCain is pulling out of Michigan.

This could be the beginning of targeting that draws resources to states still in play and may also mean that McCain is running short on cash.

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The Latest Polls

As I have posted before, I am glued to Real Clear Politics. (RCP)

The way they average the polls to reduce the impact of erroneous spikes keeps me grounded.

The RCP national average is currently showing Obama with an average 4.8% lead. As an Obama supporter, that's good the hear, but not that interesting. When you get down to the state by state polls, it gets real interesting.

For the first time since August Obama has a lead in Ohio. For the first time since July, really since the general election began, Obama has a shown a sharp upward spike and the lead in the RCP average in Virginia. Obama is even showing a slim lead in North Carolina. Lastly, Obama is showing his first, albeit slim lead in Florida this year.

If the election were held today and the results mimicked the RCP state by state averages, the RCP map starts to look a lot like the maps predicted by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com weeks, if not months ago. History is usually a better indicator for election results than polls, but if these trends continue, the final map could look something like what you see above.

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How Many Taxes Can a Tax Cutter Cut if a Tax Cutter Could Cut Taxes

Longest title ever. Sorry.

At any rate, from the WaPo, the Tax Policy Center (a conglomeration of Urban Institute and the Brookings Institution) did a study of the McCain and Obama tax plans. Interesting results.

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain are both proposing tax plans that would result in cuts for most American families. Obama's plan gives the biggest cuts to those who make the least, while McCain would give the largest cuts to the very wealthy.[emphasis added]

Not my words, not a partisan political campaign's ad, but the Tax Policy Center.
In the "Above $2.87 Million" income level (still below the "rich" level proposed by McCain)(/end snark), McCain proposes his largest cut of 4.4%, which equates to an extra $126,280 (on exactly $2.87 M...the graphic uses the avergage amount, which is nearly $270,000!). The Aston Martin Vantage costs $117,000. By the way.

This same income level is, true to his campaign speeches, a tax increase in Obama's proposal. That increases the taxes anywhere from about $300,000 to a little over $700,000.

Obama's biggest cuts are to the bottom 3 income levels listed: Up to $18,981; $18,982 - $37,595; and $37,596 - $66,354. As the graphic points out, 60% of all taxpayer are in those 3 income groups. Most of taxpaying Americans are in those 3 income groups. McCain's plan saves people near the poverty level a whopping $20, while giving the top 0.1% (not 1%...but POINT 1%) 2 or 3 extra Aston Martins. Obama's plan gives these same near-poverty earners over $500 while placing a $700,000 burden on the top 0.1%.

What I don't like about the graphic is that it lists "avergae cut." Reading that, the graphic is skewed towards McCain's cut, who gives everyone a cut, whereas Obama's average is thrown by his massive increase to be extremely-wealthy.

I really suck at math, but if you look at just the taxes that concern the bulk of taxpayers (the 60%), Obama's plan cuts an average of 3.8% and McCain cuts an average of 0.46%. Interestingly, in Obama's plan, if you add up the amount of tax cuts given to the bottom 3 income levels, it equals the tax increase on the highest income level: 11.5%. Go figure. A tax cut that pays for itself through an increase elsewhere.

Finally, a newly created web site called obamataxcut.com uses the Tax Policy Center's figures to see what kind of cut you get under Obama's plan.

For my income range, Obama gives me $4734.40 in cuts. That's 112 cases of 160 Size 3 Pampers!

However...McCain gives me $5,947.41 back. Maybe I should vote McCain after all...

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So Much for Leadership.

"Heads I Win, Tails You Lose." -John Cole, Balloon Juice

So according to John Cole, over at Balloon Juice, as the vote on the Wall Street bailout package approached, John McCain criticised Barack Obama for not being involved with creating the final solution.


Following the failure of the vote, McCain criticised Obama for being too involved and injecting politics into the situation.

Huh.

Cole also reveals that it was the intent of the Republicans to see the Democrats pass this thing and then tie Obama to none other than Bush in an attack ad. It seems that Republican National Committee needs to learn how to count votes, because they sent their attack ad out before realizing the vote failed.

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Open Thread... Take 2

I don't want to cover up Smitty's review. But just in case anyone wants to comment on the verbal ass kicking of an old geez... I mean, the DEBATE, the comment section awaits.

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Two Great Websites for the Political (Silly) Season

Each election cycle seems to bring out new websites that offer a new ways to cover the elections from either the right, left, or independent persuasions. Two websites stand out in my mind as good sources of information for 2008: Politico and Real Clear Politics. Both are best suited for the political junky.

Politico
This site and its contributors are getting a wider audience, including within the main stream media. The site has some very-well researched articles, some of which I have referenced before, such as Roger Simon’s, multi-part series on the Democratic primary.

It’s great to see a news source that has some great original content that is not either targeted at the right or the left.

Real Clear Politics
Did you know that (based on this site’s compilation of polling data) had the election been held last week, Obama would have likely won the popular vote and McCain would have one the electoral college tally?

I have been glued to Real Clear Politics for the last few weeks. Among other things, RCP calculates the “RCP Average”, which averages a group of recent polls around the country to smooth out some of the spikes to see the real trends. They do the same for battleground states. They also estimate the current Electoral College results state by state and have an interactive map, where you can click on each state to calculate various election scenarios.

My current prediction, based on polling data and historical trends: Obama/Biden 273, McCain /Palin, 265. (Obama wins all of the Kerrie states, plus Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa)

Realclearpolitics.com also has links to relevant articles around the country on both the right and the left.

What are your sources of politcal information for 2008?

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A New Black Monday?

Pop quiz... who said the following?

"The fundamental business of the country... is on a sound and prosperous basis."

If you said 'John McCain', you were close. It was Herbert Hoover, on October 25, 1929; the day after the original Black Monday. But is does sound familiar;

The fundamentals of our economy are strong.

That's right, the Republican candidate for president is channeling the original cross between an ostrich and Alfred E. Newman...

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