Michigan Primary Results

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

By Smitty and Bob

At this point everyone has likely heard the Michigan Primary Results, but we thought it may be interesting to look at the actual delegate count, not the media-filtered horse race reporting, plus some commentary from Smitty. We also haven't been over to Kos's site to see if he's claiming victory regarding his strategy to have Dems cross over for Mitt.

Percentage of the Vote in Michigan's Primary

Democratic Ticket %
Clinton 55%
Uncommitted 40%
Kucinich 4%
Dodd 1%
Gravel 0%
Richardson 0%

Republican Ticket %
Romney 39%
McCain 30%
Huckabee 16%
Paul 9%
Thompson 4%
Giuliani 3%
Uncommitted 2%
Hunter 0%

Nationwide Delegate count according to CNN.com

If Bob understands this correctly, CNN has NOT added in any Michigan Democratic Delegates and has only added in 50% of the Michigan Republican Delegates. The totals seem to include the votes of "pledged" delegates. These are the delegates and "super delegates" that can vote for whomever they choose outside of the primary or caucus system.

Democratic Delegate Count - Nationwide
Clinton: 190
Obama: 103
Edwards: 51
Kucinich: 1

Total Delegates Available: 4049

Republican Delegate Count - Nationwide
Romney: 42
Huckabee: 21
McCain: 19
Thompson: 6
Paul: 2
Giuliani: 1
Hunter: 1

Total Delegates Available: 2380

Back to Michigan, Mitt was 1 point ahead of McCain going into yesterday's vote. That obviously grew to a 9-point lead over the course of the day. I was right about one thing: the Michigan Republican GOTV was out in force for Mitt and certainly didn't need the Dems' help. Kos's strategy, for what it's worth, would have assured a win whereas a 1-point lead going into a vote was enough to make him nervous and McCain hopeful. Well, in the end, Anuzis's machine worked as it was built to do, and turned-out about twice as many voters as the much-less-excited Dems. Ouch.

Candidate "uncommitted" garnered an unprecedented 40% of the vote. 40%. Hilarious. Also hilarious is the fact that Kucinich got only about 2,000 less total votes than Giuliani, making Giuliani onl slightly more popular than him.

Some interesting exit-polling data, for the true political nerds:

  • "Uncommitted" won in Detroit and ran nearly 50 percent in Washtenaw County (thanks, I'm sure, to Mr. Furious' efforts)
  • 70 % of black voters voted for "uncommitted," a stunning lack of support for Ms. Clinton
  • Clinton got support from 58 percent of the women who voted but just 47 percent of the men
  • Uncommitted got 43 percent of the male vote
  • Clinton won 55% of voters without college degrees and 46% of those with degrees
  • Uncommitted won 45% of those with degrees

So there you have it. Onward to lovely Myrtle Beach and South Carolina's primary this saturday.


B Mac 9:40 AM  

While nothing was TOO out of kilter with the results, what struck me most was Rudy Giuliani's poor showing. He came in with 3%. THREE. Percent. Damn.

Hell, cancer and hailstorms have at least a 4% approval rating.

I understand his strategy, or at least I understand what he thinks he's doing. He's focusing on Florida, and hoping that a good showing in the Sunshine and Old People State will catapult him into Super-Duper-Humongo-Ginormous Tuesday.

But how are his people going to be fired up to vote when he gets beaten by Ron Paul and Fred Thompson. Hell, Dennis Kucinich came in at 4%. A month ago, Rudy Giuliani was mentioned as a frontrunner in every media piece. Now, he's lucky if he is mentioned at all.

Now he HAS to win Florida. And when you're counting on FLORIDA's electorate to vote without stabbing themselves with the little voting stylus, you're putting a lot of eggs in a really old basket...

steves 9:50 AM  

I am hoping Guiliani fades into the past. Black voters voted for uncommitted (aka Obama). I wouldn't call this much of a surprise. I saw several black talk show hosts being interviewed that admitted their vote was going to Obama because he was black. One even said he would change his vote if Obama were white. I applaud them for their honesty, and I am glad this country is at the point where a someone besides a white male can be a legitimate candidate, I think voting based solely (or mostly) on race is not a good thing.

OTOH, Oprah endorsed him...

Smitty 9:51 AM  

Now, he's lucky if he is mentioned at all.

That's exactly what isbeing said amongst the pollsters and punditry. He's already in danger of being ignored in the media and if he doesn't get off the ground, he's completely lost.

Mrs. Smitty,  1:47 PM  

Bob is right, CNN isn't counting Michigan's Dem delegates because as of now, we don't get any. Until the DNC pulls back and says we can come to their party in August, our delegates will be outside staring in the windows. No, scratch that, they'll be at the bar talking about the convention over some union-made (or Michigan made - buy michigan first!) beers.

Bob/Poindexter "Chief Beer Advocate" 6:14 PM  

The only way our delegates won't be seated is if this thing is close at the end and the Michigan delegates decide the thing.

Then all hell breaks loose.

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