Is Hillary Clinton Math is Driving the “Do-over”?

Thursday, March 06, 2008

What is driving the sudden reconsideration of a Michigan and Florida “do-over”? It’s the math and the fact that under the current calculation, Clinton cannot likely win. What’s a candidate to do?

Change the math.

According to CNN.com, Barack Obama has 1520 delegates compared to 1424 delegates for Hillary Clinton, a deference of 96 delegates. This includes the super delegates.

There are 611 delegates remaining, therefore, to catch up to Obama, Clinton must get 353.5 of the remaining delegates, compared to Obama earning only 257.5. Clinton would need to earn 57.9% to Obama’s 42.1%. (Clinton beat Obama 54% to 44% in Ohio based on the popular vote.)

Based on what primaries are left. It is highly unlikely that Clinton can make up the difference. In fact, she may be further behind once Pennsylvania rolls around because Obama will do well in the smaller caucus states and will likely clean her clock in Mississippi due to the extremely high proportion of African American voters in that state’s Democratic electorate.

Clinton needs more contests.

This is where Michigan and Florida come in. Clinton doesn’t think these states are going to be added to the calculation, so the only way to get them included and provide her enough relief is to call for a do-over. Obama isn’t likely to complain about this change, which would alienate the voters in those two states because he will need them in November.

Now that Hillary has done well in Ohio, I am betting that she thinks that win can translate to votes in Michigan, giving her a shot at the nomination. She also already won the non-contest in Florida, so Obama may have to do some serious campaigning there, in a very limited time, to catch up.

If Michigan and Florida return to the polls, it will decide the nomination.


Side note: One interesting tidbit is that Obama’s negative comments about the auto industry last year, which may have given him favor with the Environmentalists, may cost him Michigan and the entire nomination.

3 comments:

B Mac 12:45 PM  

It sounds like Obama's camp has veto power in the behind-the-scenes negotiations, so I don't think they're going to get TOO screwed. But it is one of the few scenarios that allows him to lose the delegate lead.

As for the comments about the auto industry, I'm not as concerned. After all, the average voter's attention span and memory for stuff like that is pretty limited. Which is fine; most people have important stuff to worry about, and don't have the luxury of being super-nerds like us.

Smitty 12:56 PM  

I'm with b mac on the auto industry comments, but for a different reason. Clinton will bring it up (if they get the "do over"), Obama will have a smooth-as-glass response, and it just looks like, yet again, Hillary is grasping at whatever she can.

John fitness training Austin TX 7:39 PM  

They want an electoral mulligan. The big complaint I keep hearing it that the people of FL and MI deserve to have their voices heard. Damn straight they do AND they actually have. The democratic voters in both those states elected people to represent their interests who saw fit to ignore the rules of the national nominating process. The voters of FL and MI should have their say. They did and will. The next time they vote they ought to vote for people other than the knuckleheads that decided to disenfranchise them. 48 out of 50 states managed to get it right.

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